Impacted by regulatory uncertainty in Europe and tightening policy measures in China, global wind turbine order intake in 1H/2012 decreased by 30% year-over-year, consistent with MAKE’s expectations of a 5% decline in 2013 installations globally. Despite these conditions, there was good activity in emerging markets in Latin America, Africa and Eastern Europe which partially offset a slump in Western Europe and Asia.
Additionally, with almost 29GW of conditional orders, the potential for a recovery in orders from 2013 and beyond exists (assuming conditional orders become firm) argues MAKE Consulting’s latest Global Wind Turbine Orders ResearchNote.
In the first half of this year, core growth markets in the EU and Asia-Pacific failed to maintain their previous momentum. The Chinese market, previously one the largest contributors to wind power growth, experienced a 60% year-over-year slowdown in orders due to a continued focus on grid-connecting existing wind power capacity. Order intake in India fell sharply as well, as policy uncertainty took its toll on the market.
The sovereign debt crisis and related policy uncertainty across Europe continue to negatively impact wind power development in the region. Tough economic conditions have driven order activity to switch from traditional Western and Southern European markets towards emerging Eastern European markets such as Poland and Turkey.
In the midst of this global slump in wind turbine orders, the Americas proved to be very resilient with orders up 13%. This was driven by developers in the U.S. attempting to squeeze in projects before the PTC expires at the end of 2012 and by significant activity in Latin American markets such as Chile and Uruguay.
The offshore market had a quiet half with just one significant order in 1H/2012. However, with around 7GW of supply to 2015 already contracted and a further 3GW of potential orders, it remains the wind industry’s brightest prospect. Futhermore, MAKE expects a seasonally stronger 2H/2012 for wind turbine orders, with the potential for recovery from 2013.
1H/2012 Global Wind Turbine Orders provides in-depth analysis of global order intake for wind turbines. It includes a year-over-year global, regional, and offshore comparison of order intake by order size, wind turbine nameplate rating, and expected commissioning year. A market-focused outlook for order intake is also provided.
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Offshore WIND staff, July 2265, 2012; Image: alpha-ventus