MAKE expects the global wind power market to add 51GW on average from 2014 to 2017 as many traditional markets fulfil expiring policy mechanisms.
The global market will grow 5% on average per year from 2018 to 2023 as the industry transitions into new support mechanisms; wind power becomes the cheapest power source through technology innovation, and emerging markets mature to provide steady growth.
2013 was a challenging year with a meagre addition of 34.5GW of grid-connected capacity – a global market decline of 26% compared to 2012 – the first time the global market has declined YoY since 2002. The U.S. market – which was one of the primary influencers for low global demand last year – will recover and make 2014 a record year for wind power growth. Backed by neighbouring Brazil where previously erected capacity is expected to be grid-connected, the Americas will support an expected 40% YoY increase in capacity – resulting in a ‘market correction’ of more than 48MW after the downturn in 2013.
MAKE expects a global 7.1% CAGR from 2013 to 2023, adding an estimated 581GW during this period. The positive trend in firm turbine order intake supports record growth expectations from 2014 to 2016. In the long term, gains in wind power’s LCOE combined with the maturation of emerging markets in Asia Pacific, the Middle East and Africa will contribute to escalating growth beyond 2020. Led by countries such as South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Ukraine and Russia, emerging markets are expected to grow over twice as fast as the traditional top global markets.
With an expected 20% CAGR from 2013 to 2023, growth in the offshore wind sector remains promising. Europe will set a record for new connected offshore capacity in 2014, despite more moderate targets in the UK and Germany. Growth will accelerate beyond 2017, driven by strong development of China’s offshore wind market.
Firm turbine order flow in 2013 increased 45% YoY, completing a recovery in firm order intake compared to 2012. The US accounted for 23% of firm order volume in Q4/2013 as developers complied with expiring incentives. Firm order backlog supports MAKE’s expectation of record installations from 2014 to 2016.
Global wind turbine pricing is showing signs of an increase, but the trend varies across regions. The Americas and Europe continue to face price pressure, but pricing is rising in China as buyer interest shifts toward technology and quality gains.
The Q1/2014 Global Wind Power Market Outlook Update provides a 10-year outlook (2014-2023) for global, regional and country-level growth. The research includes a detailed market forecast update for more than 50 key and emerging markets for wind power. The forecast data includes a split of expected onshore and offshore development, and analysis of the latest order and pricing trends.
Press release, March 7, 2014; Image: Vattenfall