NYC-based PIRA Energy Group’s weekly report reveals that U.S. builds decline and that the robust gas production has depleted gas prices.
Storage injections dipped into double-digit territory for the first time in two months, but came in a bit above market expectations at 93 BCF. The EIA’s reported build was stronger than the year-ago and five-year average, but less so than recent weeks. The year-on-year storage deficit shrunk by its smallest weekly increment (13 BCF) in nearly a month.
The group also posed a question whether the wide summer/winter spread in Europe can be justified? Two elements have acted as the basis for wider summer/winter spreads in the past: lack of regional storage capacity and dependence on gas imports to balance during peak winter demand periods. PIRA’s primary concern about current winter pricing is based on a change in the traditional relationship between projected winter demand and storage levels. A comparison between the U.S. and Europe illustrates this point.
NYC-based PIRA Energy Group believes that French day-ahead prices are down on strong nuclear output, medium-term prices unaffected. In the U.S., Milder summer weather patterns across the heartland along with robust gas production have deflated gas prices and power demand, thereby providing a relief valve for coal stocks.
Press Release, July 17, 2014