New gas supply key to staving off shortfalls looming on Australia’s energy horizon

As Australia takes steps to up its natural gas ante, Australian Energy Producers (AEP), representing the country’s upstream oil and gas exploration and production industry, has emphasized the importance of further exploration and production endeavors to avert potential gaps in gas supply from 2030.

While welcoming new gas exploration acreage, Australian Energy Producers has hailed Federal Resources Minister Madeleine King’s announcement to open five new areas in the Otway Basin for offshore petroleum exploration as a way to ensure Australia’s long-term supply of gas, since the east coast gas market is facing shortfalls by the end of the decade.

Samantha McCulloch, Australian Energy Producers’ Chief Executive, who pointed out that the decision reaffirmed the essential role of natural gas to Australia’s energy security and the need for continued investment in new gas supply, explained: “Exploration is a critical first step in the discovery and development of new oil and gas resources needed to ensure Australia’s long-term energy security.

“As the Future Gas Strategy confirmed, Australia will need continued investment in new gas exploration and development to meet our energy needs to 2050 and beyond. Bringing new gas supply online sooner is the only sustainable solution to put downward pressure on prices.”

With the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) warning that supply shortfalls will worsen from 2030 without continued new supply and investment, Western Australia’s long-term energy security is anticipated to depend on bringing new gas supply online sooner.

AEMO’s ‘2025 Western Australian Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO)’ confirms natural gas will remain critical to the state’s long-term economic growth and energy security, powering mining, mineral processing and industry, and as the main source of WA’s electricity.

Richard Ellis, Australian Energy Producers’ WA Director, highlighted: “The GSOO confirms natural gas will remain critical to Western Australia’s energy mix and a key driver of the state’s economy for decades, powering homes, businesses and industry.

“However, AEMO forecasts supply gaps from 2030 unless new supply enters the market. The only way to avoid those shortfalls is to bring new gas supply online sooner and maintain a stable regulatory environment that supports long-term investment in gas exploration and development.”

Furthermore, the WA GSOO forecasts potential annual supply gaps of around 11 terajoules per day (TJ/day) from 2030, widening to 82 TJ/day by 2035, driven primarily by declining output from existing and committed gas fields.

Ellis claims that the findings underline the need to fast-track new gas developments and replace depleting fields to support the state’s economy and energy system, while also outlining emerging risks from pipeline constraints and more variable gas demand for electricity generation.

Australian Energy Producers’ WA Director noted: “Western Australia’s long-standing policy settings have underpinned decades of energy security and economic growth, but sustaining this into the future will depend on decisions made now.

“The message from AEMO is clear: continued investment in new gas supply and infrastructure is essential to maintain system adequacy beyond 2030.”

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