Clarksons: Order Volumes Recovery Slows in 2019

The shipbuilding industry has been experiencing modest recovery in order volumes since the 30-year low in 2016 but this recovery is slowing down, Steve Gordon, Global Head of Clarksons Research, said ahead of the Marintec 2019 exhibition.

Gordon attributed this to questions over “timing and technology” that create uncertainty around long term investment decisions, despite underlying improvements in the ship earnings environment.

The moderate pick up in orders has stalled with orders down around 35 % year on year in 2019 to date.

According to Clarksons, the global newbuilding orderbook currently stands at 184 million dwt, and USD 220 billion. By value, the orderbook is dominated by cruise (USD 59bn), bulkers (USD 27bn) tankers (USD 25bn), LNG carriers (USD 23 bn) and containerships (USD 20bn).

Worth noting is also that the total scrubber count of installed and pending vessels reached 4,000, with the around 1,783 vessels now fitted with scrubbers representing 9% of the fleet by tonnage capacity. This is expected to rise to 19% of fleet capacity by end 2020. What is more, 3% of the current fleet by tonnage capacity is now LNG fuel capable.

When it comes to alternative fuels, there are currently 8 LPG-capable newbuilds plus 4 pending retrofit, 11 methanol capable and three hydrogen capable newbuilds. In addition around 160 present vessels and newbuilds feature battery/battery hybrid propulsion.

When it comes to shipbuilding, China retains market lead of the orderbook backlog, with 35% of the orderbook by CGT, followed by South Korea (29%) and Japan (16%). In output terms, China has delivered 34% of output in 2019 to date, with Korea recovering to 29% and Japan falling to 26%.