Eurogas Releases Long-term Outlook for Gas to 2035

Eurogas, the association representing the European gas industry, has recently published its Long-term Outlook for Gas to 2035. The Outlook provides a distinct perspective on the future of Europe’s gas markets prepared by its member company and association experts in national and European markets.

According to Eurgas’ latest forecast, gas demand across the European Union is expected to remain relatively stable in 2013 compared with 2012. An increase in demand of 2.6% was recorded in the first half of 2013 compared with the same period in 2012.

In order to make predictions valid for differing future developments, the Outlook considers various possible scenarios that reflect diverse, yet plausible, conditions. For this purpose the following three “cases” are established:

The Base Case deriving from current national energy policies, which show little or no investment in the gas sector in most parts of Europe in the next five to ten years.

The Environmental Case anticipating a rebalancing of the energy mix towards more renewable and slightly less nuclear electricity, together with restored economic growth and a high rate of innovation in energy-efficient equipment.

The Slow Developments Case projects gas becoming less competitive in Europe as a result of global developments, a policy environment that remains hostile to gas, weaker industrial performance in Europe and slow progress in energy efficiency.

For each of these cases, the Eurogas Outlook projects an expected level of gas demand in each sector of consumption: power generation, residential and commercial, industry and transport.

However, in any realistic scenario the qualities of gas will still lead customers in all sectors to want to keep using it, Eurogas states. “The cleanliness, controllability, low carbon dioxide (CO2) content and flexibility in use of gas – coupled with its adaptability to high-efficiency equipment and innovative technologies – will continue to create demand in both difficult and favourable market and policy conditions”.

In particular referring to the transport sector, the outlook sates that gas “has the potential to reach a sevenfold increase if the right political environment and coordinated support of all stakeholders are in place”. According to Eurogas’ estimations, gas demand for transport is likely to increase substantially – from 2 Mtoe in 2010 to around 14 Mtoe by 2035 (see figure below).

Beside the increases potential of compressed natural gas (CNG) as a vehicle fuel the Eurogas document also takes into consideration the rapidly unfolding possibilities for liquefied natural gas (LNG) in both trucks and maritime transport.

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Source: NGVA Europe, December 20, 2013