NEB lowers Canada’s natural gas output due to delayed LNG exports

Canada’s National Energy Board updated its long-term energy outlook, lowering natural gas production due to the later start date for LNG exports and lower price outlook. 

Following the increase from 2012 to 2015, Canadian marketable natural gas production in the reference case is starting to decline, dropping from 15.4 Bcf per day in 2016 to 14.8 Bcf/d in 2020, the report shows, noting that prices would not be sufficient to warrant enough drilling that would maintain production levels.

In report’s cases, LNG exports from British Columbia are expected to start in 2021 and rise from 0.5 Bcf/d per year to 2.5 Bcf/d by 2025. This would, in turn, reverse the declining production that would hit 17.3 Bcf/d by 2026.

In NEB’s update, total Canadian production is lower relative to the initial Energy Future report.

Following the onset of LNG exports, BC’s natural gas production grows considerably, reaching 7.4 Bcf/d. Production in other provinces, including Saskatchewan, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and the Territories, declines steadily over the projection period as new natural gas drilling activity is focused in Alberta and B.C., the report shows.

LNG World News Staff