EIA: OPEC’s oil exports revenue on growth path after 2004-low
OPEC’s net oil exports revenues in 2016 fell to $433 billion, or some 15 percent from $509 million in 2015. This is according to a report by the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
EIA said the reason for the decline was mainly due to the fall in average annual crude oil prices during 2016, and to a lesser extent to decreases in the level of OPEC net oil exports.
This revenue total was the lowest earnings for OPEC since 2004. The net oil export revenues reflect OPEC members as of May 2017.
These net export earnings include Iran, which the EIA did not include in reports published between 2012 and 2015. However, Iran’s net export revenues are not adjusted for possible price discounts the country may have offered its customers between late 2011 and January 2016, when nuclear-related sanctions targeting Iran’s oil sales were in place. Saudi Arabia earned the largest share of these earnings, $133 billion in 2016, representing approximately one-third of total OPEC oil revenues.
EIA, however, forecasts that the OPEC revenues will surpass the 2015 levels in 2017.
EIA projects that OPEC net oil export revenues will rise to about $539 billion dollars (unadjusted for inflation) in 2017, based on projections of global oil prices and OPEC production levels in EIA’s May 2017 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).
On a per capita basis, OPEC net oil export earnings are expected to increase by about 18% from $912 in 2016 to $1,112 in 2017. The expected increase in OPEC’s net export earnings is attributed to slightly higher forecast annual crude oil prices in 2017 compared with 2016 as well as slightly higher OPEC output during the year, EIA said.
For 2018, OPEC revenues are projected to be $595 billion, with an increase in forecast crude oil prices, coupled with higher OPEC production and exports, contributing to the rise in overall earnings.