Shell’s LNG forecast anticipates 65% surge in demand by 2050

June 30, 2026, by Melisa Cavcic

UK-headquartered energy giant Shell is expecting an uptick in demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) to nearly 700 million tonnes a year by 2050, following supply disruptions caused by the conflict in the Middle East, which was cushioned by North American supply growth.

According to Shell’s ‘LNG Outlook 2026,’ global LNG demand is projected to increase to nearly 700 million tonnes a year by 2050, a jump of around 65% from 2025 levels, as countries continue to prioritize flexible and reliable energy security offered by gas and LNG.

While a total of 422 million tonnes of LNG was traded in 2025, the volume was expected to grow significantly in 2026, before the severe disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz shut in around one-fifth of the world’s monthly LNG supply since the conflict started, pushing up prices on the spot market and adversely affecting some countries in Asia.

However, the ramp-up of new liquefaction facilities in North America, improved performance at existing plants, and slower Asian imports of LNG have partially offset the impact of reduced supply from the Middle East. In light of this, total LNG trade in 2026 could be similar to last year, if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz goes back to normal levels this summer, before returning to growth in 2027.

Even though about 180 million tonnes of annual new supply is forecast to enter the market by 2030, improving the availability and affordability of gas and opening up demand in new markets, the ability to benefit from new supply will depend on the availability of infrastructure in importing countries, including regasification capacity and pipeline connectivity, especially in South and Southeast Asia.

Given that forecasts show those regions will account for around 40% of global LNG imports by 2050 to meet rapidly growing demand for energy with lower emissions than coal, Shell’s outlook emphasizes that data centres are emerging as a new source of power demand in more mature Asian markets, such as Japan, while emerging segments of demand are also growing rapidly.

Based on the forecasts, LNG bunkering will grow seven-fold to 27 million tonnes by 2035, more than the amount of LNG imported by India last year. The UK giant’s new outlook highlights that LNG will continue to have a vital role in delivering energy security in Europe to balance intermittent renewables as domestic gas production declines.

The company claims that significant additional investment will be needed in new LNG liquefaction plants through the 2030s and 2040s to meet the growing demand, with around 200 million tonnes a year of new supply needed, in addition to projects already under construction.

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Cederic Cremers, President of Integrated Gas at Shell, commented: “The conflict created a system-wide shock with disruption cascading across all segments of the economy, but the LNG industry has proved resilient and able to adapt to changing market conditions.

“While more investment in both supply and demand infrastructure is needed, the long-term outlook remains strong and LNG will continue to be a stabilising force in the global energy system.”

Although LNG spot prices in Asia rose to more than $20 per million British thermal units at the peak of the Middle East crisis, they remained significantly lower than in 2022, when gas supplies were disrupted following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, reflecting the LNG market’s greater resilience now.

With long-term supply agreements accounting for around two-thirds of total LNG trade, Shell is adamant that the average price buyers paid for LNG in May was about $11-12 per million British thermal units, compared to $7-11 in January before the conflict began.

Since the firm’s first LNG outlook publication in 2017, global LNG trade has witnessed a boost of around 60%, from 264 million to 428 million tonnes, with China’s LNG imports rising by about 250%, as the number of LNG-importing countries grew from 36 to 49, and the fleet of LNG-fuelled ships expanded from 77 to over 800 vessels.