UK: Offshore energy jobs could double by 2030 if successful transition from fossils to renewables is achieved
A new report by Robert Gordon University has found that the UK offshore energy workforce can increase by up to 50% from over 150,000 in 2023 to 225,000 by the end of the decade with new renewable jobs outnumbering oil and gas roles if a successful transition is achieved.
Despite the encouraging predictions in a successful and timely energy transition scenario for the UK, the new Powering up the Workforce report has also warned that if the rate of investment and activity in renewables in the UK does not increase significantly, at a time when oil and gas activities are in rapid decline, then up to 95,000 potential offshore energy jobs will be at risk.
Retaining the offshore oil and gas supply chain, its workforce and associated skills over the next five years will be crucial, the report reads. This is because there continues to be limited capacity for the UK offshore renewables sector to host and accommodate the quantity of skilled oil and gas workers impacted by the predicted decline in the hydrocarbon sector until later this decade.
Paul de Leeuw, director of the Robert Gordon University’s Energy Transition Institute, said: “This report presents a range of workforce outcomes that could materialize over the coming years. There is a huge prize up for grabs and we want to equip decision makers – whether in government, industry or in individual businesses – with new insight to convert those opportunities into reality.
“With investment at risk and wind projects facing delays, the findings underline the present-day situation for the UK offshore energy industry and its stakeholders. The big prize of a significant jobs gain is still within our collective reach. Inaction or simply slow progress will mean that offshore energy job numbers overall could drop by 15% to 130,000 by 2030, making the path towards net zero even harder to negotiate.”
A window from 2024-2028 to optimize the transferability of offshore energy workforce
The results in Powering up the Workforce report are based on data derived from a specially developed workforce visibility tool that draws together information from industry, organizations, governments, individual companies and research analysis to yield valuable new insights.
A managed and just transition from oil and gas to renewables will still see the oil and gas workforce decline from 120,000 today to around 87,000 by 2030 (in line with production decline and decommissioning activities).
A more rapid decline in the oil and gas sector, that results from limiting new investment and reducing operational activities, could reduce the oil and gas workforce to around 60,000 by 2030. In addition to the loss of jobs, this is a significant loss of skills for the future energy sector.
The analysis shows that there is a workforce ‘goldilocks zone’ between 2024 and 2028 when the UK supply chain capacity and capability can be sustained, developed and invested in, so that the transferability of the offshore energy workforce is optimized.
Key to effective delivery of the goldilocks zone will be rapid investment in UK capabilities to deliver a fast-growing program of green capital projects, which in turn will help to realize ambitious goals for domestic execution of these projects.
UK offshore renewables workforce expected to exceed that of oil and gas
According to the report, of a projected spend of up to £200 billion – £100 billion of which is still subject to approval – in the UK offshore energy system over the remainder of this decade, it is estimated that around 90% (close to £175 billion) will be spent in the supply chain. The remainder is associated with operator and developer activities.
The report predicts also that a new workforce model could emerge, with future jobs concentrated around key energy clusters across the UK, with a more transient workforce and an increased focus on capex and vocational work, resulting in people moving from project to project across the country.
Depending on the level of ambition realized, the UK offshore renewables workforce is expected to exceed the oil and gas workforce from the late 2020s onwards, the report states.
The Scottish-based offshore energy workforce could increase by 25% from 79,000 to close to 100,000 if the energy transition and UK content ambitions are successfully attained. However, If Scotland is unsuccessful in capturing the full range of offshore energy and UK content opportunities, the offshore energy workforce could fall by around 40% to below 50,000 by 2030.
Cross-energy sector cooperation the route to successful transition
The report has been praised by the trade body Offshore Energies UK (OEUK) as crucial to efforts to deliver a managed energy transition.
David Whitehouse, CEO of OEUK, said: “Meeting more of our needs from energy produced in the UK means more jobs in the UK. The UK offshore energy sector embraces the challenges and opportunities of the energy transition. Not only in oil and gas but the future opportunities in wind, carbon storage, and a hydrogen economy.
“But this report shows that we must embrace the opportunity to work with all energy sectors or risk losing 95,000 highly skilled jobs in the UK by 2030. When looking at our future energy networks and supplies, there is no simple choice between oil and gas or renewables.
“The reality is that to keep our homes warm, the lights on, and our economy growing, we need both – this report clearly shows that cross-energy sector cooperation is the route to delivering high skilled jobs, a growing economy, and a successful energy transition.”
Scottish government’s wellbeing economy secretary, Neil Gray, added: “This report fully chimes with the analysis undertaken to inform our draft Energy Strategy and Just Transition Plan. There are enormous opportunities to be had from our energy transition – including a significant net jobs gain – but in order to seize them, we must work together, at pace, and with a strategic vision.
“This is precisely why the Scottish government has set out a clear vision for a flourishing, net zero energy system, and why we are already delivering on a just transition for our energy workforce – including through our £500 million Just Transition Fund, with projects such as an energy skills passport to support the transferability of offshore workers’ skills already being developed. In this vital decade for action, we will continue to work closely with the energy sector to capitalize on the economic benefits our energy transition presents.”