Quadruple or quicksand? DNV report flags CCS at ‘critical’ juncture

The carbon capture and storage (CCS) sector is approaching a ‘decisive’ turning point, with global capacity on track to grow fourfold by 2030, Norway’s classification society DNV has highlighted in a new report.

Up to the end of the decade, DNV has shared in its “Energy Transition Outlook: CCS to 2050” report, cumulative investment in carbon capture and storage is projected to reach $80 billion. North America and Europe are expected to push this short-term scale-up forward, with natural gas processing still the main application for the technology.

Europe, in particular, could gain more headway due to policy support and strong price incentives, the report shared.

However, as noted in the report, worldwide economic instability and budgetary pressures could pose a risk to CCS deployment, having placed it at a ‘critical’ crossroads going ahead. This could shift priorities and cause a realignment of financial decisions that could affect the status quo of carbon capture—a technology seen as ‘crucial’ for tackling decarbonization challenges in sectors such as steel and cement production, and maritime transport.

As disclosed, these hard-to-decarbonize industries could act as the biggest drivers of CCS growth from 2030 onwards. They could account for as much as 41% of annual CO2 captured by mid-century. Maritime onboard capture is likely to scale from the 2040s in parts of the global shipping fleet.

As the technologies mature, the average costs could also drop by an average of 40% by 2050.

That said, even though capture from natural gas production is set to continue, DNV’s report spotlights that its share could drop from 34% in 2030 to 6% of total capture in 2050, falling “significantly short” of what is required for any net-zero outcome.

Representatives from the Oslo-headquartered classification society have noted here that numbers like these suggest CCS would need to scale to six times this level to reach the Pathway to Net Zero Emissions.

“Carbon capture and storage technologies are a necessity for ensuring that CO2 emitted by fossil-fuel combustion is stopped from reaching the atmosphere and for keeping the goals of the Paris Agreement alive,” Ditlev Engel, CEO of Energy Systems at DNV, remarked.

“But for all this advancement, the trajectory of CCS deployment remains a long way off where it must be to deliver net zero by 2050. Economic headwinds in recent years have put pressure on this capital-intensive technology and corrective action will need to be taken by government and industry if we are to close the gap between ambition and reality,” he further stressed.

Within the carbon dioxide removal (CDR) landscape, DNV predicts that 330 MtCO2 could be captured by this means in 2050, equating to one quarter of total captured emissions. As noted, bioenergy with CCS (BECCS) tends to be a more affordable CDR option, which is why it could primarily be used in renewable biomass for power and manufacturing.

On the other hand, direct air capture (DAC) costs are projected to remain high at roughly $350/tCO2 through to 2050. DNV has said that voluntary and compliance carbon markets could still ensure the capture of 32 MtCO2 in 2040 and 84 MtCO2 in 2050.

Beyond DNV’s forecast period, it is understood that a ‘tremendous’ amount of CDR, together with nature-based solutions, will be needed to ensure net-negative emissions. Jamie Burrows, Global Segment Lead CCUS, Energy Systems at DNV, remarked that delays in slashing carbon dioxide emissions will “place an even greater burden” on CO2 removal technologies.

“To stay within climate targets, we must accelerate the deployment of all carbon management solutions -from industrial capture to nature-based removal – starting today,” he concluded.

Although onboard carbon capture and storage (OCCS) solutions have shown potential in aiding the shipping industry to meet its 2050 climate neutrality ambitions, the Global Centre for Maritime Decarbonization (GCMD) has also underscored that numerous challenges within this space persist.

According to GCMD’s May 2025 analysis, there are many merits of this technology, particularly when applying conventional monoethanolamine (MEA)-based OCCS, which are seen as the most mature. For instance, the GCMD found that a HFO-fueled vessel could see a well-to-wake (WtW) greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction of 29%, while replacing HFO with bio-LNG or biodiesel from used cooking oil can result in emissions savings for a vessel deploying MEA-based OCCS from 69% to 121%, respectively.

Nevertheless, in October 2024, GCMD and its partners cautioned that certain hurdles within the (O)CCS space linger, such as recurring additional costs due to fuel penalties, amine solvent replenishment, manpower, maintenance services, and the fact that most ports presently lack the infrastructure required to offload and store captured carbon efficiently.