CE Delft: Shipping can slash CO2 emissions by 50% by the end of decade

The global shipping industry can reduce emissions by nearly 50% by the end of the decade, according to a new study by CE Delft. 

Illustration; Credit: Port of Rotterdam

The study was commissioned by Transport & Environment, Seas at Risk, Ocean Conservancy and Pacific Environment.

The analysis shows that ships can achieve 36-47% emissions reduction by 2030 compared to 2008 levels by deploying 5-10% zero or near-zero emission fuels, wind-assist technologies, and by ‘climate optimising’ the speed of ships. 

The study also concludes that costs associated with these emissions cuts would be manageable. Halving emissions in this decade would only add around 10% to the total cost of shipping operations, a sum that would be dwarfed by the cost of climate related damages to the industry and wider society if shipping fails to cut emissions.

University College London estimates that every year of inaction this decade will add an extra $100 billion to the cost of shipping decarbonisation. 

These findings come as the UN’s International Maritime Organization (IMO) is about to reach an agreement on climate targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from ships in July.

Civil society groups call on the IMO’s 175 member states to urgently support halving shipping emissions by 2030 and reaching zero by 2040 to put the industry on the zero-emission pathway required for achieving the 1.5°C temperature warming limit agreed under the Paris Agreement.

Recently, marine fuel groups and companies, such as H2Carrier and MAN Energy Solutions, have also called on the IMO to adopt more ambitious interim targets for 2030 and 2040.

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“The science is crystal clear, emissions from shipping have to halve by 2030 if we are to stand any chance of keeping warming below the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit. What was less clear until now was if this was possible without impacting trade. Now we know not only that it is possible and shipping has a clear pathway to halving its climate impact by 2030, but that it can do so at minimal cost,” John Maggs, Seas At Risk, said.

“Waiting until 2050 to decarbonise is a bit like waiting until your house burns down before you call the fire brigade. This would be irresponsible and disingenuous. Science says halving emissions by 2030 is technically possible, and costs are manageable. What is needed is the political will; IMO needs to either step up or ship out!” Faïg Abbasov, Transport & Environment, added.

“Countries and shipping companies have raised real concerns about the technological and economic feasibility of achieving the 1.5°C-aligned goal of halving emissions by 2030. This analysis clearly shows that these reductions are possible and that costs are not a barrier. The evidence couldn’t come at a better time. The IMO must not squander what may be the last best opportunity to put shipping on track to prevent a climate disaster,” Delaine McCullough, Ocean Conservancy, noted.

The IMO is in the process of revising its existing climate targets, which currently aim to only halve emissions from ships by 2050. The negotiations are set to continue on 26-30 June with an Intercessional Working Group meeting (ISWG-GHG-15), before concluding on 3-7 July at the 80th session of the Marine Environment Protection Committee meeting (MEPC 80).

The last round of talks on 20-24 March (ISWG-GHG-14) showed 45 countries in the room agreed to shipping reaching zero-emissions by 2050. Support also grew for urgent action sooner.

The findings are in: global shipping can halve its climate-wrecking emissions this decade without disrupting trade. The costs are minimal for the industry to step up and meet their responsibilities for decarbonization, steering shipping into alignment with a 1.5°C world, while helping to avoid the worst impacts of climate change,” Antonio Santos, Pacific Environment, stressed.

“The upcoming IMO Marine Environment Protection Committee meeting in July is a historic opportunity to decarbonize international shipping, and including science-based 2030 and 2040 targets are essential to meeting this moment,” Santos concluded.