US EIA revises Henry Hub price estimates

The U.S. Energy Information Administration has changed its forecast for Henry Hub natural gas spot prices this year as LNG exports produced from shale gas continue to rise.

In its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook released on Tuesday, the agency said Henry Hub gas prices would average $2.99 per million British thermal units in 2018 and $3.12/MMBtu in 2019.

The 2018 estimate is up 3 cents as compared to forecasts in EIA’s previous short-term outlook.

“NYMEX futures and options contract values for December 2018 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending September 6, 2018, suggest a range of $2.31/MMBtu to $3.77/MMBtu encompasses the market expectation for December Henry Hub natural gas prices at the 95% confidence level,” the agency said.

EIA also said that U.S. dry natural gas production reached 82.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in August, up 0.7 Bcf/d from July.

Dry natural gas production is expected to average 81.0 Bcf/d in 2018, up by 7.4 Bcf/d from 2017 and establishing a new record high, it said.

EIA added it expects natural gas production to continue to rise in 2019 to an average of 84.7 Bcf/d.