The era of oil in maritime is ending, UK government’s forecasts show

August 26, 2025, by Naida Hakirevic Prevljak

The UK’s Department for Transport has published new long-term forecasts showing a major shift in the way goods move through British ports, with oil and fossil fuel traffic expected to collapse while ferries, roll-on/roll-off (RoRo) and container shipping surge.

Compared to 2023, total UK port traffic is forecast to grow by 1.2% in 2035 and by 7.8% in 2050, that is from 420.6 million tonnes in 2023 to 425.8M in 2035 and to 453.5M in 2050, the UK Port Freight Traffic Forecasts (2024–2050) predict.

The long-term growth, by 2050, is driven by significant increases in unitized and dry bulk freight (56.7% and 61.7%, respectively). The former is forecast to increase from 151.9M tonnes in 2023 to 237.9M tonnes in 2050 and the latter from 84.4M tonnes in 2023 to 136.5M tonnes in 2050.

General cargo freight is also forecast to increase but at the lower rate of 12.1%, that is from 15.0M tonnes in 2023 to 16.9M tonnes in 2050.

On the other hand, liquid bulk traffic is forecast to realize a significant decrease, by 63.3%, from 169.3M tonnes in 2023 to 62.1M tonnes in 2050. This is mainly due to the acceleration of the net-zero transition, which will mostly affect crude oil and oil products.

This decrease, especially for other liquid bulk cargoes, can also be attributed to the shift from liquid bulk to tank containers for some shipments. Liquefied gases are also forecast to decrease, although to a lesser degree, which can be due to the use of natural gas as a transition fuel towards net zero.

The UK has seen a significant reduction in crude oil refining, with just six operational refineries today from 18 in the 1970s. The reliance on oil is dwindling and will only accelerate as the motor and energy sectors increasingly move towards sustainable options and demand for fossil-based products falls, as per the report.

The forecasts aim to inform long-term strategic thinking for the UK ports sector, including in the context of the National Policy Statement for Ports (NPSP). The NPSP highlights the importance of the ports sector to the UK economy. For ports and shipping operators, the message of the forecasts is clear: the growth is coming from sectors that can and must electrify.

In related news, NatPower Marine, an independent clean energy enabler for the maritime sector, and Peel Ports Group, a major UK port operator, are committing £100 million (about $130 million) to electrify eight major UK and Irish ports, creating the first green shipping corridors across the Irish Sea.

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By 2030, NatPower plans to deliver £250 million shorepower infrastructure, a global network of 120 clean ports, designed around the busiest commercial routes. Working directly with cruise, ferry and shipping lines, the company is building a route-based charging network that ensures vessels can plug into clean electricity at berth (cold ironing) and en route (propulsion charging).

This model not only reduces emissions but also directly tackles the Scope 3 emissions from vessel operations that make up the bulk of a port’s carbon footprint.

“The Government’s forecasts confirm the reality: the age of oil is ending, and the future of UK ports lies in electrified trade. The segments highlighted for growth, including ferries, Ro-Ro and container shipping, are also the ones best suited to clean shore power and e-charging. Without urgent investment, the UK risks gridlock at the very moment maritime trade is accelerating,” Stefano D. M. Sommadossi, CEO of NatPower Marine UK, stressed.

“This is a once-in-a-generation infrastructure transition. The Government’s forecasts show the future. Our job is to build the network that makes it possible.”