Guest column: Hunting in 2013

If Steve Jobs chooses to have the yacht of his dreams built by a Dutch shipbuilder, you know that you’re the world’s finest in your field. The late Apple-icon and his brand represent top quality, top innovation and the utter must-have. Way to go, Dutch yacht building industry. Unfortunately, a Steve Jobs doesn’t walk into your offices on a daily basis. There is an economic crisis going on that keeps consumers from major spending. The demand for leisure boats has dropped. When will this market improve again? And which choices do you have to make in order to become tomorrow’s major player?

Make no mistake: the client of the future doesn’t live in the Netherlands. Nor in Europe, for that matter, because Europe’s significant part on the world stage of economy is history. Population on the continent is dropping due to low birthrate and aging is developing rapidly. Europe is on its way to become one huge pension paradise, like Florida in the USA. Considerably prosperous, but not exactly grand and compelling. The only remaining booming business is care for the elderly. The staff needed to provide that care will be acquired in the world’s ‘young’ regions, like Asia. Those youngsters will entertain the grannies with a little fun shopping. Maybe even some aquarobics, but that is as far as the future Europeans’ interest in aquatics goes.

Don’t panic: a new and bigger market is waiting outside Europe. Actually, it’s already happening. Oil sheiks in Abu Dhabi are eager to hit the waves on their own private luxury yachts. And these nice flat irons will also suit the bay of Rio de Janeiro. While I’m writing this, a Dutch trade mission that includes the yacht building industry is visiting Brazil. Smart move. An upper class of wealthy individuals is developing rapidly in Brazil, pushing the demand for yachts and leisure boats. As a regular visitor of Brazil, I also spot a growing middle class. That opens even more opportunities, for middle class Brazilians are already more well-to-do than their European counterparts. On top of that, Brazil lacks the know-how for high-tech manufacturing, which makes businesses reach out for European partners.

Of course you’re also wondering whether the new economies’ spending classes prefer sustainable boats. Or, looking beyond the near future, will be forced to go sustainable because planet earth has ran out of oil. I have some good news for you. There will be increased emphasis on up-and-coming sustainable energy sources, such as tidal energy. But fossil fuels will remain part of tomorrow’s energy mix. As I state in my upcoming book Plenty (Megatrends water, energy and raw materials), scheduled to be released in September 2013: LNG is here to stay, but good old gasoline as well. Every day new oilfields are still discovered. In 2010, Brazilian national oil company Petrobras even found two fields at once, with a combined oil reserve of 65 million barrels.

But whether tomorrow’s moneybags float away on oil or bio energy, make sure you catch them. Therefore, my advice is: don’t wait for a revival of your national economy in order for people to start buying boats again. Aim your marketing efforts towards the upcoming economies. Present yourself at exhibitions, advertise in glossy magazines. Invest.

Adjiedj Bakas
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