Dry Bulk Market Facing Bleak Prospects

The Hong Kong-listed Pacific Basin Shipping has issued its Third Quarter 2014 Trading Update, stating that the dry bulk market weakened further in the third quarter with Handysize freight rates in July falling to the very low levels last seen in February 2009.

The third quarter Handysize and Handymax spot market rates averaged USD 5,910 and USD 8,430 per day net respectively, representing a 21% and 9% decline year-on-year

Despite reduced global dry bulk net fleet growth, Pacific Basin believes freight market weakness was driven by the on-going tonnage supply overhang compounded partly by the protracted Indonesian exports ban and reduced Chinese coal imports

R.S. Platou estimates dry bulk transportation demand in the first half of 2014 to have risen 6% year on year. They have recently revised downwards their estimate of demand growth for the full year 2014 to 4.8% (from 7.6% in April) citing the protracted Indonesian bauxite and nickel ore export ban and falling Chinese coal imports as the two main reasons.

The global dry bulk fleet expanded by 0.9% net during the quarter on slower newbuilding deliveries and despite reduced scrapping which in the third quarter reduced to 0.5% of the current fleet afloat. The global fleet of 25,000-40,000 dwt Handysize vessels registered 0.6% net growth during the third quarter. Reduced South American port congestion has served to increase the effective supply of dry bulk capacity.

New ship ordering activity in the third quarter was half that of the second quarter and 62% down year on year. The Capesize and Panamax segments saw proportionally greater ordering activity than the minor bulk carrier segments. As at October 1, the published orderbook for Handysize vessels stood at 23% as compared to 18% a year ago. The orderbook for dry bulk vessels overall has increased to 24% from 18% a year ago.

Current and medium-term dry bulk net fleet growth has reduced to around 5% per year. However, the market has yet to fully absorb the supply overhang following the 2010-12 newbuilding boom, and weaker than expected demand for seaborne trade is muddying the outlook for the dry bulk market.

Pacific Basin believes that sustained demand growth of at least 6-7% is necessary to support a healthier supply and demand balance, and such growth continues to be threatened by the protracted Indonesian mineral exports ban, reduced Chinese coal imports, lower growth in Chinese economic and industrial development and the softer growth outlook for the developed economies.