Horizons Magazine: Northern Sea Route Likely to Become Ice-Free by 2100

Vessels using the harsh, sometimes hazardous, Northern Sea Route (NSR) linking the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans will face no sizeable ice hazards by 2050 and are likely to travel ice-free by 2100, according to group of Lloyd’s Register Marine summer interns who produced a radical and independent-minded report.

These are the forthright conclusions of a report titled The Benefits of Travelling via the Northern Sea Route by a group of Lloyd’s Register summer interns. It says that while Arctic ice currently gives the route little or no advantage over the Suez Canal, its future is much more promising as “Arctic ice is declining at a rate of 3-4% every 10 years”.

The 80-page report goes on to state that “the estimation for future reductions in ice coverage means that routes across the NSR will become more consistent year on year, reducing the amount of voyages where a longer route is required to avoid thick ice.”

Vessel size will also improve the route’s prospects, according to the report. “No longer will the size of vessels on the route be limited by the 6.7 metre maximum draught across certain straights, meaning the NSR will reach a point where the economies of scale it offers will rival that of alternative routes,” it explains.

This will mean an increase in cargo sizes too. “The cargoes transiting via the NSR can be expected to increase due to its fuel-saving potential resulting from shorter routes and improved economies of scale. … The predicted shift in global production of raw and manufactured goods, and the potential for mining reserves on the route, would encourage an increase in cargo moved via the route due to the nations the NSR can serve and the known reserves along it.”

Recent Russian investment in safety shows the country is keen for the NSR to become a major shipping route as well. “The investment represents both a positive for vessel operators, and an indication that the Russian desire for the route to become a key method of transit will lead to a fall in bureaucracy surrounding the NSR,” the report continues.

The report’s findings show that, while the NSR will continue to be an area of environmental concern for the international community, technical breakthroughs are likely to lead to greener types of vessel using the route.

“The next two decades will see it become a highly feasible and desirable route choice for commercial operators,” the report predicts. “However for now, the Suez Canal will be the route of choice of international maritime operators serving the key trade routes in Europe and Asia.”

Summer intern Edmund Mackenzie, currently studying naval architecture at Newcastle University, commented: “It was a great way to find out the challenges vessels face when transiting a major route in polar conditions, such as ice-breaking, manoeuvrability, stress levels, statutory computation and stability.”

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Horizons-Lloyd’s Register magazine, January 10, 2013