Industrial power map shifts as clean energy soars in sunbelt nations

Although China, the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) remain frontrunners in clean industry development, a bloc of emerging markets spanning Africa, Asia and South America is quickly catching up, showing the potential to overthrow the ‘longstanding dominance’ of these leading economies.

According to the newly released “Clean Industry: Transformational Trends” report by Mission Possible Partnership (MPP), a decarbonization-oriented coalition launched in 2021, nations from the fast-expanding “new industrial sunbelt”, such as Brazil, Morocco, Indonesia, Egypt and India, now account for 59% of the global $1.6 trillion pipeline of announced but not yet financed projects.

In comparison, the US represents 18%, the EU 10% and China just 6%, the report revealed, with related projects comprising ‘key’ clean sectors such as aluminium, chemicals, cement, aviation, and steel.

It is worth noting that China has been a leading nation in the maritime industry, especially in shipbuilding, where it has consistently been number one, followed by ‘neighbouring’ South Korea and Japan. The US has been falling behind the ‘big three’.

The report, supported by the Industrial Transition Accelerator (ITA), has noted here that governments of almost 70 countries could also ensure early mover advantage, similarly to the EU and others, by crafting policies that would support the construction of announced initiatives.

Adequate policy support has been spotlighted as a core element of the decarbonization momentum, with studies suggesting emissions in the maritime transportation industry, for example, could be cut by over 95% by 2050 owing to regulatory frameworks.

As disclosed, the industrial shift points to a possible global realignment as the production of materials, chemicals and fuels increasingly moves to countries offering abundant renewable energy, favorable policies and cost advantages. The sunbelt has made significant headway here by harnessing natural resources, particularly solar energy, to power new clean manufacturing.

“Just like the industries of yesterday located near the coal mines which powered them, the new generation of energy-intensive industrial plants will go to where they can access abundant, reliable, cheap, clean electricity to produce materials, chemicals and fuels. The industrial heartlands of the past will have to be smart and cooperate if they want to retain their leading positions,” CEO of MPP and Executive Director of the ITA, Faustine Delasalle, commented.

Moreover, while China clinched a quarter of the $250 billion of investment in clean plants to date, closely followed by the US at 22% and the EU at 14%, sunbelt nations such as Indonesia and Morocco, per data from MPP’s analysis, secured a fifth of investment thus far.

However, a staggering $948 billion opportunity is said to exist for their announced projects, especially as economies dominated by agriculture increasingly see lower-cost clean ammonia for fertilizer as both an economic advantage and a chance to increase food security. Ammonia as an energy source has also been identified as a path toward climate neutrality in these emerging markets.

In total, MPP’s Global Project Tracker (launched in April last year) records 826 commercial-scale clean industrial plants across 69 countries. Of these, 69 are operational, 65 have reportedly secured financing, and eight have reached final investment decision (FID) within the past six months. As elaborated, the remaining 692 projects have been revealed but are awaiting financing.

“Perhaps surprisingly, developing economies have an enormous opportunity to leapfrog fossil fuels in heavy industry and transport, creating the infrastructure for sustainable economic growth in the 21st century. We now need to unlock the full potential of the clean industrial revolution and exponentially accelerate the existing pipeline,” Christiana Figueres, Co-Founder of Global Optimism, remarked.

Despite growing competition, MPP unveiled that $450 billion in clean industrial investment has been announced in the US and EU, with policymakers in these regions now facing pressure to better the investment conditions or “risk losing ground.” Per the report, investment in these regions tends to thrive where stable regulations, public funding, demand-boosting measures, and lower capital expenditure (capex) costs align.

Meanwhile, Europe unpacked its Clean Industrial Deal in February 2025, a long-awaited business plan outlining concrete actions to turn decarbonization into ‘a driver of growth‘ for European industries by supporting renewable energy sources and transitioning away from fossil fuels. The plan is to provide at least €100 billion to support EU-made clean manufacturing.

According to MPP, the fastest-growing clean industry sectors are green ammonia—with 28 plants at FID and 344 announced—and sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), which count 22 operational plants, seven at FID, and 144 announced.

As explained, green ammonia presents a strong business case, particularly in agriculture, as a low-cost drop-in solution for fertiliser production, while sustainable aviation fuels benefit from strong regulatory support and continued demand for air travel.

In addition to this, in the maritime industry, using ammonia as fuel is seen as one of the most ‘viable’ paths toward net zero, with the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) 2050 Net Zero Framework (NZF) appearing to tilt in favor of this environmentally friendly fuel and ships powered by it.

As per MPP’s analysis, the new industrial sunbelt nations host over three-quarters of all commercial-scale green ammonia production facilities planned globally (at both FID and announced). What is more, declining electricity and electrolyser costs in these markets mean that the production of this sustainable fuel could undercut fossil-fuel-based grey ammonia by 2035, with production costs potentially halving compared to Western Europe or the US.

Concerning the total pipeline, worldwide green ammonia production capacity from first-mover sunbelt countries is anticipated to play a ‘huge’ part in global supply chains.

MPP has added that for many low- and middle-income economies, this transition is said to offer the chance to leapfrog conventional carbon-intensive development, access export markets, create jobs, enhance food and energy security, and secure long-term competitive advantage in future clean commodity markets.

Despite the potential as shown, the pace of translating commitments into financed projects appears to remain sluggish. At the current rate, MPP’s report put forward that it would take approximately 40 years for all announced projects to reach construction.

Additionally, unlocking the full potential of the pipeline is estimated to require a fivefold increase in investment and decisive action by governments, financiers, and corporate buyers.

Because of this, the MPP and ITA have proposed some policy actions that could accelerate project financing, including fuel standard programs, carbon pricing, and state-backed intermediaries.

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