Significant costs ahead for shipping industry to decarbonize, UNCTAD says

September 26, 2025, by Naida Hakirevic Prevljak

Clear regulatory signals, greater investment and cooperation among governments, industry and financial actors will be essential to driving the shipping industry’s transition, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said.

Decarbonizing maritime transport will entail significant costs, including fleet renewal, port adaptation and alternative fuel infrastructure, the UN intergovernmental body has warned.

UNCTAD, which promotes the development-friendly integration of developing countries into the world economy, published The Review of Maritime Transport 2025: Staying the course in turbulent waters on September 24, 2025.

The report shows that shipping’s greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) rose by 5% in 2024. One of the reasons is rerouting – longer routes have increased carbon emissions, UNCTAD’s data shows.

What is more, only 8% of the world fleet’s tonnage is equipped to use alternative fuels, and ship recycling rates remain low.

The International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) Net-Zero Framework (NZF) — expected to be considered for adoption in October 2025 — will set a global fuel standard and introduce a GHG pricing mechanism from 2028, with a fund to potentially support developing countries.

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Ship recycling will need to accelerate while upholding sustainable ship recycling practices. The Hong Kong Convention on safe and environmentally sound ship recycling entered into force in June 2025, covering 90% of the global recycling market.

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Global shipping, moving over 80% of the world’s merchandise trade, is entering a period of fragile growth, rising costs and mounting uncertainty, according to the review.

After firm growth last year, seaborne trade is expected to stall in 2025, with volumes barely rising (+0.5%). Long-distance rerouting caused by geopolitical tensions kept ships busier last year, with a record of nearly 6% growth in ton-miles.

“The transitions ahead – to zero carbon, to digital systems, to new trade routes – must be just transitions,” Rebeca Grynspan, UNCTAD Secretary-General, stressed.

“They must empower, not exclude. They must build resilience, not deepen vulnerability.”

Political tensions, new tariffs, shifting trading patterns and reconfigured shipping lanes are reshaping the geography of maritime trade. The United States of America and several trading partners have announced policy measures, including new tariffs and port fees in the US for certain foreign-built or foreign-operated vessels. These measures may further affect shipping costs and routes. The result is more rerouting, skipped port calls, longer journeys and ultimately increased costs.

Energy shipping is also in transition: Coal and oil volumes are under pressure from decarbonization efforts, while gas trade continues to expand. Critical minerals — essential for batteries, renewable energy and the digital economy as a whole — are becoming a new source of tension in global trade, with competition to secure supplies and add value domestically. Maritime logistics are key for developing countries in seizing critical minerals opportunities.

Furthermore, freight rates have become more volatile, with disruptions such as the 2024 Red Sea crisis driving a surge that year, while ongoing geopolitical tensions in 2025 raise concerns about potential spillovers that could disrupt shipping activity in the Strait of Hormuz.

Environmental compliance costs, including emissions pricing, are redefining shipping economics.

Persistent high transport costs risk hitting developing countries the hardest, particularly small island developing states and least developed countries, as per the report.

UNCTAD has called for targeted measures to mitigate transport cost increases, strengthen port performance, advance trade facilitation and improve predictability in trade policies.

In addition, ports are said to be under strain from disruptions, leading to congestion and longer waiting times.

They also face the need to invest in cleaner, more efficient and smarter operations. Digital systems — such as maritime single windows and port community systems — are helping some countries cut costs and delays, but many developing economies still lag. UNCTAD has therefore urged governments to implement global commitments on trade facilitation and automation, and expand public–private partnerships in port operations. As digitalization advances, cybersecurity emerges as a critical priority.

The Review of Maritime Transport also highlights the need to protect seafarers’ rights, as cases of abandonment hit a record in 2024.

The amendment to the Maritime Labour Convention, entering into force in 2027, will strengthen their rights to repatriation and shore leave; however, effective enforcement is still needed.

Policy priorities outlined by UN Trade and Development include:

Stabilizing trade policies to reduce uncertainty and keep supply chains flowing.
Investing in sustainable, green and resilient infrastructure for ports and shipping.
Promoting digitalization to improve efficiency and transparency while ensuring cybersecurity.
Accelerating fleet renewal and modernization to meet climate goals and promote sustainable ship recycling.
Protecting vulnerable economies from the worst impacts of higher shipping costs.