Drewry: Automation Has Little Medium-Term Impact on Seafarer Demand
Vessel automation and digitization will reduce future seafarer demand, but the medium-term impact is expected to be limited, according to shipping consultancy Drewry.
The evolution of autonomous ships will have significant implications for seafarer demand, training needs and manning costs. Crewing remains the single largest cost head within vessel operations, representing almost a half of typical ship operating costs.
In Drewry’s view the take-up of autonomous shipping may not be as rapid as many industry observers expect. Reasons for this include: unclear economic benefits, high investment costs, significance of required regulatory regime changes and likely variable adoption rates dependent on sector and geography.
However, despite this shipowners and managers should still be planning for the medium term future crewing requirement of semi-autonomous vessels.
Some of the likely upcoming changes to the seafarer employment market as a result of greater automation include wage structures, training and reduced need for human watch keepers, according to Drewry.
Changes to seafarer wage structures
Seafarer roles with the necessary skills and experience to operate in automated environments will likely command premium payments. Coupled with better employment conditions, these will drive up unit manning costs, though the overall impact may be tempered by reductions in on-board numbers.
Depending on how quickly automated systems are put in place, a seafarer supply lag could lead to cost spikes. Wage inflation will be exasperated if there are lengthy lags between growth in demand for particular technology-related skill sets and the available supply of such seafarers. Hence, ship managers will need to have training strategies in place to ensure that enough skilled labour is available in the future.
Training bottlenecks & rising backup manning ratios
Linked to this, training college bottlenecks could add to supply and cost pressures. Companies may therefore need to consider from where they will get sufficient numbers of IT literate seafarers if knowledge of digital systems becomes necessary ship wide, and not just limited to a few specialist roles. College courses will need to be designed and approved to provide the relevant training, Drewry explained.
Upskilling could raise backup manning ratios. Given that it is likely that training time will need to be increased to keep skills up to date more regularly, this will have an effect on the man-berth ratio. Drewry believes that increased automation could lead to an increase in overall backup ratios of 2%, that would reflect both increased training ashore and more familiarisation time needed with vessel systems when crew changes take place.
Reduced need for human watch keepers
If digital systems could reliably reduce the need for human watch keepers, hours of rest would be less significant. The remaining human element on-board could potentially operate the vessel with less support since the number of deck officers is determined to some extent by the amount of rest needed between periods of watch.
“This point is where the current economic benefits of automation are especially unclear since vessels will need to have duplication, at least, of all systems which would come at huge capital costs for most merchant fleet vessels,” Drewry said.
Against the background of reports on the effects of digitisation, and assumed reduced demand for labour at sea, “young people may become less likely to consider seafaring as a career.”
“It seems prudent for shipowners and managers, therefore, to be careful to maintain the positive benefits of seafaring occupations to ensure that they continue to get labour for as long as they need it.”